Call us on: 01353 662 442   or email info@camouse.co.uk


Hello!

May Market Commentary

Posted on: 2nd May 2023 by: CamOuse Financial Management Limited

Introduction

High inflation continued to put the brakes on growth in many major economies throughout April, with the International Monetary Fund expecting global growth to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023.

As always, let’s drill down a bit further and take a closer look at what’s been going on across the globe…

UK

The UK economy failed to see any growth at all during February, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This was attributed partly to the effects of ongoing industrial action, and followed a surprise 0.4% increase in growth in January.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the UK’s economic performance would be the worst of any G20 nation this year – including Russia. The UK’s economic performance has been hampered by continued high inflation, which eased slightly to 10.1% in March, but remains well above the Bank of England’s target and exceeded many analysts’ expectations.

Huw Pill, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, commented on the current economic climate by telling a podcast that people in the UK need to accept that “yes, we’re all worse off”. However, this led to a considerable backlash, with the Federation of Small Businesses describing him as “out of touch”.

London, notably, remains a bright spot in the UK economy, with figures from NatWest and S&P Global showing that businesses in the capital are performing better than in any other part of the country. Furthermore, a Deloitte survey of chief financial officers showed the biggest increase in confidence in three years.

In the retail sector, sales volumes fell by 0.9% between February and March, according to the ONS, partly because poor weather kept people away from the shops.

However, British Retail Consortium data showed the number of shoppers visiting stores at the weekend rose by 9.7% in March year-on-year, but despite this upturn, footfall was still lower than it was pre-pandemic.

As ever, the impact of Brexit was in the news again throughout April, as Microsoft President Brad Smith told the BBC the EU was a better place than the UK to start a business. He made the comments after the UK’s competition watchdog prevented Microsoft from buying US gaming firm Activision, which Mr Smith said marked the company’s “darkest day” in its many years of working in Britain.

In the wider labour market, the number of people looking for work went up by 220,000 between December and February, while the number of job vacancies fell for the ninth consecutive period.

The pound ended April up 0.02%, and on the financial markets, the FTSE-100 Index ended the month at 7,870 points, up 3.13% on March.

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Poland during April to thank the country for its continued support and meet with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is understood to have visited occupied parts of Ukraine, which followed an earlier trip to Mariupol in March.

April also saw Ukraine resume its electricity exports for the first time since Russia began attacking its energy infrastructure last autumn.

Europe

Economic output in the European Union went up by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the previous three months. Official figures also revealed that average hourly wages and salaries went up by 4.4% across the EU during 2022, rising to €22.9. Across the euro area, average hourly wages and salaries rose by 4% to €25.5.

Meanwhile, the European Parliament is preparing to address concerns over the development of AI technology, with proposed new rules forcing the companies that develop chatbots to state if they use copyrighted material. In addition, policymakers sought to step up its efforts to tackle climate change, approving three pieces of legislation to support its plan to reduce greenhouse gases by more than half by 2030.

April also saw Europe step up its efforts to engage with China, as French President Emmanuel Macron and Head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. This follows recent visits from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

On the financial markets, Germany’s DAX index saw an increase of 1.88% in April to end the month at 15,922 points. Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 index rose by 2.31% in the month to end at 7,491 points.

US

2023 began with a slight slowdown in economic growth in the US, with the economy growing by 1.1% in the first quarter of the year on an annualised basis. Official figures also showed that inflation fell to 5%, which is well above the US central bank’s target of 2%.

Despite this slowdown in growth, the labour market remained resilient, with employers adding 236,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate stayed near a historic low at just 3.5%.

April saw the next chapter of the drama at Twitter continuing, with boss Elon Musk threatening to sue Microsoft for allegedly using data from the social media giant without permission, and the removal of blue ticks from verified accounts, as many prominent figures refused to pay for the check mark.

Staying in the tech sector, Seagate was hit with a £241m penalty for allegedly shipping hard disk drives to Chinese firm Huawei, in violation of export controls introduced three years ago.

Meanwhile, policymakers in Montana have passed legislation banning TikTok on personal devices, amid ongoing concerns that the Chinese-owned app presents a national security risk.

Media giant Fox News, meanwhile, was in the news for all the wrong reasons, as it agreed to pay voting machine firm Dominion £634m to settle a defamation lawsuit regarding its coverage of the 2020 presidential election.

On the financial markets, the Dow Jones rose by 2.48% to end the month at 34,098, while the more broadly-based S&P 500 index went up by 1.46% to end at 4,169.

Far East

Unsurprisingly, the lifting of Covid restrictions in China had a positive impact on the economy, with the country’s GDP going up by 4.5% year-on-year. This was driven by an upturn in household spending and an increase in manufacturing activity.

Meanwhile, Chinese technology firm Alibaba has announced plans to launch a rival to ChatGPT called Tongyi Qianwen, and electric car company Tesla has confirmed plans to expand into the country.

Elsewhere in the tech industry, South Korean tech firm Samsung Electronics has estimated a 96% drop in its quarterly operating profit, partly because of the global economic slowdown and reduced demand following the pandemic. As a result, the company plans to reduce memory chip production.

On the financial markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell by 2.48% to end April at 19,894. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei index rose by 2.91% to 28,856. China’s Shanghai Composite index rose by 1.54% to 3,323.27 and the market in South Korea rose 1% to 2501.53.

Emerging Markets

Sanction-hit Russia’s currency fell to its lowest value for a year in early April, slipping to 82 roubles against the US dollar on the Moscow Stock Exchange on April 7th.

Despite the sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country is still tipped to see economic growth this year, with the IMF upgrading its growth estimate for 2023 from 0.3% to 0.7%.

Meanwhile, tech giant Apple has launched its first retail store in India. Chief Executive Tim Cook attended the opening in Mumbai, where he was met with claps and cheers from staff and customers eager to pose with him for selfies.

On the financial markets, India’s BSE Sensex index rose by 0.58 per cent to end at 60,649.38 points. Russia’s MOEX index closed at 2,634.94 points, while Brazil’s Bovespa index ended the month at 104,432 points.

And Finally…

One of the biggest worries when ChatGPT emerged was that young people might use it to write their homework for them, and that this would be hard for teachers to spot.

Unfortunately for one student, they made it very easy for their teacher to identify the use of AI, when they submitted an English Literature essay on Shakespeare’s Twelfth Night, with the introduction: “I’m sorry, but as an AI language model, I am not able to complete this assignment. However, I can provide you with some guidance on how to approach this essay.”

The teacher was brutal in her marking, simply circling the offending paragraph and telling the student to rewrite the assignment in their own words.

If you think that the student was unlucky, spare a thought for Naomi Mulumbala and partner Ralph, who bought a multipack of crisps and upon opening one of the bags, were confronted with the sight of just one solitary crisp. Ralph, 31, said the incident has left him with “trust issues” with his favourite crisp flavour and won’t be “risking it again”.

Tags: Market Commentary,


Speak your mind

1 2 3 4 5
Opt-in?

  • I thought CamOuse were very helpful and dealt with my enquiries promptly.

    D Mowatt

    Clive Nickalls

  • I have been a client of CamOuse's for many years. My advisors have provided assistance with mortgages, financial planning, investments and most importantly my future. The team remain passionate and professional and I would recommend CamOuse without question.

    L Isbell

    Trevor Honey & Clive Nickalls

  • The staff are always happy to help.

    J Pearce

  • Lee has always given me excellent advice when choosing a new mortgage. I would highly recommend him.

    R O'Dell

    Lee Pooley

  • Everyone is very friendly, approchable, helpful and professional.

    G Parr

    Trevor Honey

  • I would like to thank Lee for all his help, he was amazing!

    Silk & Schwarz

    Lee Pooley

  • Lee was recommended to us by 2 of his existing clients, colleagues and friends of ours and I'm glad they did so! He made the whole process much simpler then we were expecting.

    Burgess & Bedford

    Lee Pooley

  • Lee has helped us on several occassions and we always appreciate and value his time and efforts.

    I & A Murphy

    Lee Pooley

  • I really appreciate the prompt, friendly, efficient service.

    V Hardy

    Clive Nickalls

  • Very pleased with the service provided and happy to recommend to my customers and friends and family.

    M Chadburn

    Clive Nickalls

  • I would like to express my thanks for the excellent service I have received and a special thank you to Hannah for keeping me updated and dealing with my queries in a very efficient and professional manner.

    T Long

    Matthew Theobald

  • Thank you (and Eve) so much for all your help and support towards our remortgage. We really appreciated your expertise.

    Cant & Robbins

    Lee Pooley

  • I would just like to thank you all on behalf of myself and Jordan. You, Eve and Max have been faultless and we couldn’t be more appreciative for all your help!

    C Baldwin

    Lee Pooley

  • Lee has provided me with mortgages and appropriate insurance for both my home and lease properties. He is professional and works to get policies in place in an extremely quick time frame. I would certainly recommend Lee and CamOuse to anyone and I personally will continue to use their service.

    G Habbin

    Lee Pooley

  • I have been a client of CamOuse Financial Management Ltd for many years and have always found their services to be of the highest quality.

    N Parker

    Jo Kurz

  • Amazing company, very friendly, professional, and always on hand to give sound advice. My family has been utilising their expertise for many years and have never been let down.

    S Bradley

    Jo Kurz

  • Sound financial advice and planning. Responsive and friendly service.

    B O'Connor

    Jo Kurz

  • The whole team at CamOuse are friendly, professional and always look after your best interests. Thanks for your help!

    G Hall

    Lee Pooley

  • We've only been with CamOuse just over a year but would highly recommend them. We deal with Matthew who is an excellent adviser, always very responsive to questions and goes the extra mile to help.

    P Carter

    Matthew Theobald

  • I was so pleased and relieved to find this company.  Particularly pleasing is their communication - it's jargon-free, concise and clear.  We've been very happy with advice given thus far, and also their responsiveness whenever we've had any queries.

    A Cant

    Jo Kurz

  • We used Lee at Camouse to arrange our mortgage and can highly recommend him to provide an honest and professional service in this area. We will certainly return to Lee for remortgage advice in the future.

    A Attewell

    Lee Pooley

  • Would like to extend our thanks to you and your team for a fantastic customer service as always.

    E & R Mendoza

    Lee Pooley

  • We paid a small fee to Camouse for whole of market mortgage broker services. As first time buyers, Lee and Eve were able to guide us through the process, find us a deal and sort out the applications in a really helpful friendly and efficient way. We were very satisfied and would recommend CamOuse to others for this service.

    L Humphrey

    Lee Pooley

  • I was extremely pleased with the quality of the service I received when arranging a mortgage as part of a house sale and purchase through CamOuse. Lee and Eve were very easy to contact and always quick to respond. I would definitely recommend their mortgage arrangement services.

    G Dewdney

    Lee Pooley

  • Jo has been extremely helpful and very patient and I will be recommending her highly to other family and friends of mine. I do sincerely appreciate the way Jo handled my issues and also the excellent and very professional way she conducted business. She is an absolute asset to CamOuse.

    C Tate

    Jo Kurz

  • CamOuse have been our go-to financial advisers since 2008 and have assisted with numerous mortgages, remortgages, insurances, and general financial advice. Lee Pooley and Eve Nowakowska have been invaluable during this time. We've built up an excellent relationship with both and trust them completely to do what's in our best interests. Both are an absolute pleasure to work with and I cannot recommend them, and by extension CamOuse, enough!

    I Murphy

    Lee Pooley

  • We used the services of CamOuse to help in buying our first home and setting up our mortgage and we were extremely happy with all the advice and help we got. We spoke to Lee mostly, who was really great! Very insightful, very friendly and helpful, very patient and all-round great service. Would happily seek their help again. Many thanks Lee!

    C Bolas

    Lee Pooley

  • We have been taking mortgage advice from CamOuse for over 20 years and are always impressed by their friendliness and professionalism.

    N Amery

    Lee Pooley

  • Thank you to Matthew and Julie for making a huge difference in my life when I thought I was so stuck and felt there was never going to be a way to move forward.

    L Smith

    Matthew Theobald


View our Privacy Notice.

Camouse Financial Management Limited is an Appointed Representative of Quilter Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

None of the information contained in this website should be considered as personal recommendation and is for information only. Should you wish to make a financial transaction we recommend that you take personal financial advice after a thorough review of your personal and financial circumstances.

The information contained within the website is subject to the UK regulatory regime and is therefore primarily targets at customers in the UK.

Registered address: Unit 111, Lancaster Way Business Park, Ely, Cambridgeshire, CB6 3NX

Registered in England and Wales. Registered No: 05662116.


Understanding the true cost to your business

Pension arrangements must be available for all employees. There are three categories of employee:

Eligible

Aged between 22 and State Pension Age (SPA) with qualifying earnings over the Auto Enrolment earnings trigger

Non-eligible

Aged between 16 – 74 with qualifying earnings between lower threshold and the Auto Enrolment earnings trigger
 
Aged between 16 -21 or SPA – 74 with qualifying earnings over Auto Enrolment earnings threshold

Entitled

Aged between 16 -74 with earnings below the qualifying earnings lower threshold

Important Notes

  1. Eligible jobholders must be auto-enrolled
  2. Non-eligible jobholders are allowed to be auto-enrolled if they want to
  3. Entitled workers are entitled to join a pension scheme, but the employer doesn't have to contribute

Qualifying Earnings lower threshold

£5,772

Qualifying Earnings upper threshold

£41,865

Automatic Enrolment earnings trigger

£10,000

Minimum contribution level options:

8% of Qualifying Earnings of which

3% is employer's (starting at 1%)

9% of Basic Salary of which

4% is employer's (starting at 2%)

8% of Basic Salary of which

3% is employer's (starting at 1%)

(Where basic salary is at least 85% of total earnings)

7% of gross earnings of which

3% is employer's (starting at 1%)

Pay reference period

Essentially the frequency that the jobholder is paid e.g. monthly, weekly etc. but with reference to the tax month, week etc. therefore it may not be the same as the payroll period.

Deduction and payment of contributions

It is the employer who is responsible to calculate, deduct and pay all contributions to the AE scheme. NOTE – the first and last contributions are likely to be for less than a full pay reference period and should be adjusted accordingly.

Payroll services

It can be seen that it is very important that the payroll system synchronises with the AE scheme otherwise the employer will not be carrying out all requirements and then penalties will be incurred.

Staging date

Based on the employer’s payroll size as at 1 April 2012 and can be found at www.thepensionsregulator.gov.uk/employers using your PAYE reference. The Qualifying Workplace Pension Scheme must be registered with The Pensions Regulator within 4 months of the staging date.

Compliance and communication

Postponement

Auto-Enrolment can be postponed for up to 3 months:

  • For current eligible employees
  • For workers that meet the criteria in the future for the first time e.g. avoid joining temporary or lower paid workers

Opt-Outs

All eligible employees must be auto-enrolled, but can, with the correct notification, opt-out within one month of joining the scheme and be treated as never having joined. They can opt back in and will automatically be auto-enrolled every 3 years in any case!

Communication

There is a wide range of information that must be provided to all employees at certain times, such as:

  • The date auto-enrolment took place for eligible jobholders
  • That non-eligible jobholders have the statutory right to opt in
  • Entitled workers have the right to request the employer to enrol them into a pension scheme

Salary sacrifice

Contributions can be paid by effectively reducing salary, which saves on NI contributions, but employee must choose to do this – they cannot be forced, so a contractual variation will need to be implemented.

Default investment fund

Investment Options

All eligible employees will be automatically invested into a default investment fund, which is a balanced risk fund that is “life styled” to account for the employees approach to retirement. They also have the option to invest in a wide range of funds of their choosing.